Why are token unlocks considered bearish for crypto prices?

Cliff unlocks abruptly expand circulating supply. Early venture capitalists and seed investors who bought tokens at steep discounts often sell to lock in profits, overwhelming retail order book depth.

How do I know when the next token unlock is scheduled?

Token unlocks are programmed into smart contract vesting schedules. You can track them on tokenomics explorers or simulate their dilution impact directly in this forecaster.

What is a dangerous supply inflation percentage?

Any single unlock event expanding circulating supply by over 15% is considered High Dilution Risk, and unlocks over 30% represent Extreme Risk of sustained price drawdowns.

Crypto

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Token Unlock & Vesting Dilution Forecaster.

Simulate upcoming token vesting cliffs, circulating supply expansion %, and market absorption capacity across Celestia, Worldcoin, Arbitrum, Pyth, and custom tokenomics. Model required cash bids and predicted price impact.

Free Runs in your browser Data: Token Vesting Schedules + On-Chain Smart Contracts

Trading & Calculation Currency:

Currency:

Upcoming Unlocks:

Vesting Dilution Simulator

Tokens Unlocking in Cliff (Millions)

175M TIA ($1,015,000,000.00)

Expected Recipient Sell/Dump Ratio

40% ($406,000,000.00)

Current Circulating:220M TIA

Cliff Recipient:Seed & Series A Investors

Total Cliff Market Value:$1,015,000,000.00

Supply Dilution Risk

Circulating Supply Expansion:

+79.5%Inflation

EXTREME DILUTION RISK

Pre-Unlock Price$5.80

Estimated Post Price$4.23

Fresh Bid Required$406,000,000.00

Market Absorption Takeaway:

This cliff injects 175M TIA into circulation. If recipients dump 40% of their unlock on the open market, buyers must provide $406,000,000.00 in fresh cash inflow just to prevent the token from falling below $4.23 (-27.0%).

Specification & Methodology

Understanding your results.

A rigorous breakdown of the mathematical equations, market assumptions, and step-by-step calculations powering this tool.

Executive Summary & Tokenomics Forecaster

Scheduled vesting cliffs are one of the most reliable predictors of altcoin drawdowns. Measuring circulating supply expansion against order book depth enables disciplined risk management before major dilution events.

Extreme Dilution Threshold ≥ 30% Supply Expansion

Peak Price Weakness 7-14 Days Pre-Cliff

FDV / MC Disparity Risk Low Float / High FDV

Vesting Dynamics

Vesting Cliffs vs Order Book Realities.

Private Round Cost Basis 10x-100x Multiples

Asymmetric Profit Realization

Institutional funds acquire tokens at pre-seed and seed rounds with entry prices often 90% below public exchange prices. When unlocks occur, even severe public price drawdowns represent massive profit-taking opportunities for insiders.

Market Absorption Capacity Liquidity Depth

Order Book Elasticity Model

Most altcoins possess ±2% order book depth under $1M on top centralized exchanges. When a $50M cliff unlocks and even 20% is dumped on spot markets, price slippage is severe and prolonged.